Arenas Armilla vs Torre del Mar: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 22Kick-off on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Nuevo Municipal, Armilla
The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 44%, against 32% for a draw and 24% for Torre del Mar. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Arenas Armilla vs Torre del Mar?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Arenas Armilla (1,787) and Torre del Mar (1,803).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Arenas Armilla have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Torre del Mar have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 20, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(away) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Peña Deportiva(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Motril(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 31, 2026 | Motril(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Arenas Armilla(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 10, 2026 | Torreperogil(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 3, 2026 | Atlético Porcuna(away) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Motril(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Arenas Armilla win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Torre del Mar win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar 0-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| May 17, 2026 | Arenas Armilla 1-0 Torre del Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Jan 24, 2026 | Torre del Mar 1-1 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Arenas Armilla 2-0 Torre del Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Torre del Mar 3-0 Arenas Armilla | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Arenas Armilla 1-2 Torre del Mar | Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 |
Last archived meeting: Torre del Mar vs Arenas Armilla on May 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Arenas Armilla score 1.1 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Torre del Mar score 0.7 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arenas Armilla | 1.1 | 1.4 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Torre del Mar | 0.7 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Arenas Armilla sit 4th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (54 points from 34 matches) and Torre del Mar sit 3rd (55 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Torre del Mar | 34 | 14 | 13 | 7 | 37 | 26 | 55 |
| 4 | Arenas Armilla | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 38 | 29 | 54 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Arenas Armilla vs Torre del Mar?
- The Footlab model makes Arenas Armilla the favourite at 44%, against 32% for a draw and 24% for Torre del Mar.
- Where and when is Arenas Armilla vs Torre del Mar played?
- Arenas Armilla vs Torre del Mar is played on January 31, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Nuevo Municipal, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.