Where and when is Churriana Vega vs Marbelli played?

Churriana Vega vs Marbelli is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Churriana Vega vs Marbelli: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)

Churriana Vega

Marbelli

The Footlab model makes Churriana Vega the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Marbelli. The most likely score is 0-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Churriana Vega vs Marbelli?

A very open match: only 33 Elo points separate Churriana Vega (1,740) and Marbelli (1,773).

Churriana Vega win37 %

Draw33 %

Marbelli win30 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Churriana Vega have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Marbelli have 6, 4 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Churriana Vega
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 24, 2026	Motril(away)	0-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 17, 2026	Motril(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 10, 2026	El Palo(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026	UD San Pedro(home)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 26, 2026	Alhaurino(away)	0-4	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Marbelli
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
May 10, 2026	Ciudad de Torredonjimeno(away)	2-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
May 3, 2026	Granada II(home)	0-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 26, 2026	Huétor Vega(away)	1-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 19, 2026	Huétor Tájar(home)	2-1	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Apr 11, 2026	UD Melilla II(away)	1-0	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Churriana Vega win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Marbelli win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 1, 2026	Marbelli 1-2 Churriana Vega	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Oct 19, 2025	Churriana Vega 1-0 Marbelli	Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

Last archived meeting: Marbelli vs Churriana Vega on Mar 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Churriana Vega score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Marbelli score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 29% probability of over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Churriana Vega	0.9	1.3	5	7/15	6/15
Marbelli	0.9	0.7	7	6/15	4/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Churriana Vega sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (52 points from 34 matches) and Marbelli sit 6th (51 points from 34 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
5	Churriana Vega	34	14	10	10	32	40	52
6	Marbelli	34	14	9	11	36	28	51

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Churriana Vega vs Marbelli?: The Footlab model makes Churriana Vega the favourite at 37%, against 33% for a draw and 30% for Marbelli.
Where and when is Churriana Vega vs Marbelli played?: Churriana Vega vs Marbelli is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 29% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.