Match

Motril vs Melilla: prediction and stats

Tercera División RFEF - Group 9Group 9 - 13Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Escribano Castilla, Motril

MotrilMelilla

The Footlab AI model makes Motril the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Melilla. The most likely score is 1-1. If Motril wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.5% of the 2,664 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 18, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Motril vs Melilla?

A very open match: only 4 Elo points separate Motril (1,859) and Melilla (1,863).

48%29%23%
Motril winDrawMelilla win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Motril vs Melilla

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Motril

Not enough data to predict the Motril lineup.

Melilla

4-3-3
  1. 10Víctor Morillo
  2. 21Carlos Bravo
  3. BB. Kavtaradze
  1. AAdrián Tovar
  2. 19Armando
  3. 19Iván Ramos
  1. 4Manuel Galán
  2. 3Fran Varela
  3. 3Lolo González
  4. DDiego Ceballos
  1. EEdua Loscos

Computed on October 18, 2026 at 03:23 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Motril have 5 wins, 7 draws and 3 defeats; Melilla have 8, 2 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Motril
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Cantoria(away)2-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Oct 11, 2026Atlético Porcuna(home)1-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Oct 4, 2026UD San Pedro(away)3-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 27, 2026Alhaurino(home)2-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 20, 2026Malaga City(away)2-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Melilla
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 18, 2026Atlético Porcuna(away)0-2Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Oct 11, 2026UD San Pedro(home)2-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Oct 4, 2026Alhaurino(away)2-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 27, 2026Malaga City(home)2-0Tercera División RFEF - Group 9
Sep 20, 2026Torre del Mar(away)2-1Tercera División RFEF - Group 9

How many goals should we expect?

Motril score 1.1 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Melilla score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Motril1.10.958/154/15
Melilla1.61.147/158/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Motril sit 5th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 9 (12 points from 6 matches) and Melilla sit 1st (18 points from 6 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
1Melilla660013318
5Motril63309512

A question about Motril vs Melilla?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Motril vs Melilla?
The Footlab AI model makes Motril the favourite at 48%, against 29% for a draw and 23% for Melilla.
Where and when is Motril vs Melilla played?
Motril vs Melilla is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Escribano Castilla, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 9.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.5% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

Other matches in the same round

Next match: Motril and Melilla

Ready to know everything about football?