Colchester vs Chesterfield: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 26Kick-off on January 19, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)JobServe Community Stadium, Colchester, Essex
The Footlab model makes Colchester the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Chesterfield. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colchester vs Chesterfield?
A very open match: only 27 Elo points separate Colchester (1,768) and Chesterfield (1,795).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colchester have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Chesterfield have 6, 5 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oldham(home) | 2-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Accrington ST(away) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stevenage(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salford City(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(home) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fleetwood Town(away) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Scunthorpe(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 14, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Colchester win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Chesterfield win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2026 | Chesterfield 3-0 Colchester | League Two |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Colchester 6-2 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Mar 4, 2025 | Colchester 1-0 Chesterfield | League Two |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Chesterfield 1-1 Colchester | League Two |
| Dec 30, 2017 | Chesterfield 0-0 Colchester | League Two |
| Sep 12, 2017 | Colchester 1-1 Chesterfield | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Chesterfield vs Colchester on Mar 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Colchester score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chesterfield score 0.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 1.7 | 1.1 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Chesterfield | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colchester sit 5th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Chesterfield sit 16th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Colchester | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Chesterfield | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colchester vs Chesterfield?
- The Footlab model makes Colchester the favourite at 38%, against 29% for a draw and 33% for Chesterfield.
- Where and when is Colchester vs Chesterfield played?
- Colchester vs Chesterfield is played on January 19, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at JobServe Community Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.