Crewe vs Exeter City: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 26Kick-off on January 19, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Mornflake Stadium, Crewe, Cheshire
The Footlab model makes Crewe the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Exeter City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Crewe vs Exeter City?
A very open match: only 14 Elo points separate Crewe (1,784) and Exeter City (1,770).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Crewe have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Exeter City have 3, 5 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Northampton(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Crawley Town(away) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Chester(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Accrington ST(home) | 2-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Grimsby(away) | 0-1 | League Two |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Bristol City(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Torquay(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Crewe win(s), 2 draw(s), 4 Exeter City win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 3, 2020 | Exeter City 1-1 Crewe | League Two |
| Oct 5, 2019 | Crewe 1-1 Exeter City | League Two |
| Feb 23, 2019 | Crewe 1-2 Exeter City | League Two |
| Dec 15, 2018 | Exeter City 1-0 Crewe | League Two |
| Feb 20, 2018 | Crewe 1-2 Exeter City | League Two |
| Sep 16, 2017 | Exeter City 3-0 Crewe | League Two |
How many goals should we expect?
Crewe score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Exeter City score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 1.2 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Exeter City | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Crewe sit 2nd in League Two (6 points from 2 matches) and Exeter City sit 13th (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Crewe | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Exeter City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Crewe vs Exeter City?
- The Footlab model makes Crewe the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Exeter City.
- Where and when is Crewe vs Exeter City played?
- Crewe vs Exeter City is played on January 19, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Mornflake Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.