Accrington ST vs York: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 26Kick-off on January 19, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Wham Stadium, Accrington, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Accrington ST. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Accrington ST vs York?
York is a heavy favourite: 1,983 Elo points against 1,676 — a 307-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Accrington ST have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; York have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 0-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Colchester(home) | 2-2 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crewe(away) | 1-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sheffield Wednesday(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Bury(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rotherham(away) | 1-1 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bristol Rovers(home) | 3-2 | League Two |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Peterborough(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Al-Ettifaq(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Accrington ST win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 York win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 29, 2023 | Accrington ST 2-0 York | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 23, 2016 | Accrington ST 3-0 York | League Two |
| Nov 28, 2015 | York 1-5 Accrington ST | League Two |
| Nov 7, 2015 | Accrington ST 3-2 York | FA Cup |
| Mar 21, 2015 | Accrington ST 2-2 York | League Two |
| Dec 26, 2014 | York 1-0 Accrington ST | League Two |
Last archived meeting: Accrington ST vs York on Jul 29, 2023
How many goals should we expect?
Accrington ST score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; York score 1.5 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accrington ST | 1.1 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| York | 1.5 | 1.6 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Accrington ST sit 19th in League Two (1 points from 2 matches) and York sit 6th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | York | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 |
| 19 | Accrington ST | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Accrington ST vs York?
- The Footlab model makes York the favourite at 56%, against 25% for a draw and 19% for Accrington ST.
- Where and when is Accrington ST vs York played?
- Accrington ST vs York is played on January 19, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Wham Stadium, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.