Grimsby vs Rochdale: prediction and stats
League TwoRegular Season - 26Kick-off on January 19, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC)Blundell Park, Cleethorpes, North East Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Grimsby. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Grimsby vs Rochdale?
A very open match: only 56 Elo points separate Grimsby (1,834) and Rochdale (1,890).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Grimsby have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Rochdale have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Walsall(away) | 0-0 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 1-0 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Blackpool(home) | 1-3 | League Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Grimsby Borough(home) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wigan(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-2 | League Two |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Newport County(away) | 0-3 | League Two |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bradford(away) | 0-2 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tranmere(away) | 2-2 | League Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | FC Halifax Town(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Grimsby win(s), 0 draw(s), 2 Rochdale win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 19, 2025 | Rochdale 2-0 Grimsby | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 11, 2023 | Grimsby 1-0 Rochdale | League Two |
| Aug 13, 2022 | Rochdale 0-1 Grimsby | League Two |
| Aug 14, 2018 | Grimsby 0-2 Rochdale | League Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Grimsby score 1.7 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Rochdale score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grimsby | 1.7 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Rochdale | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Grimsby sit 8th in League Two (4 points from 2 matches) and Rochdale sit 23rd (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Grimsby | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 23 | Rochdale | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Grimsby vs Rochdale?
- The Footlab model makes Rochdale the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Grimsby.
- Where and when is Grimsby vs Rochdale played?
- Grimsby vs Rochdale is played on January 19, 2027 at 07:45 PM (UTC) at Blundell Park, in the League Two.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.