Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Lower.com Field, Columbus, Ohio
The Footlab model makes Columbus Crew the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for New York Red Bulls. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?
Columbus Crew starts as the favourite with a 102-point Elo edge (1,849 vs 1,746).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Columbus Crew have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; New York Red Bulls have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | CF Montreal(home) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 11, 2026 | U.N.A.M. - Pumas(home) | 1-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 7, 2026 | CF Pachuca(home) | 2-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Atlas(home) | 3-1 | Leagues Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 19, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atlanta United FC(away) | 1-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Orlando City SC(home) | 3-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Charlotte(home) | 0-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 1-3 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Columbus Crew win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 New York Red Bulls win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | New York Red Bulls 3-2 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Columbus Crew 3-1 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 30, 2025 | New York Red Bulls 0-0 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| Nov 3, 2024 | New York Red Bulls 2-2 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 29, 2024 | Columbus Crew 0-1 New York Red Bulls | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 20, 2024 | New York Red Bulls 2-3 Columbus Crew | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: New York Red Bulls vs Columbus Crew on May 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Columbus Crew score 1.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; New York Red Bulls score 1.5 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 65% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbus Crew | 1.5 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
| New York Red Bulls | 1.5 | 2.1 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Columbus Crew sit 12th in Major League Soccer (20 points from 20 matches) and New York Red Bulls sit 8th (25 points from 20 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 20 | 7 | 4 | 9 | 30 | 42 | 25 |
| 12 | Columbus Crew | 20 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 28 | 33 | 20 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls?
- The Footlab model makes Columbus Crew the favourite at 59%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for New York Red Bulls.
- Where and when is Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls played?
- Columbus Crew vs New York Red Bulls is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Lower.com Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 65% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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