DC United vs Atlanta United FC: prediction and stats
Major League SoccerRegular Season - 28Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC)Audi Field, Washington, District of Columbia
The Footlab model makes DC United the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Atlanta United FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win DC United vs Atlanta United FC?
A very open match: only 2 Elo points separate DC United (1,715) and Atlanta United FC (1,718).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, DC United have 3 wins, 9 draws and 3 defeats; Atlanta United FC have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | CF Montreal(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Nashville SC(home) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Toronto FC(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Houston Dynamo(away) | 1-1 | Major League Soccer |
| May 23, 2026 | CF Montreal(home) | 4-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | New York Red Bulls(home) | 2-1 | Major League Soccer |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Philadelphia Union(away) | 2-3 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 25, 2026 | New England Revolution(away) | 1-4 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 23, 2026 | Charlotte(away) | 2-2 | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nashville SC(away) | 0-1 | Major League Soccer |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 DC United win(s), 4 draw(s), 1 Atlanta United FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Atlanta United FC 0-0 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| Oct 18, 2025 | Atlanta United FC 1-1 DC United | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 5, 2025 | DC United 0-0 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| Jul 27, 2024 | Atlanta United FC 3-3 DC United | Leagues Cup |
| Jun 19, 2024 | DC United 0-1 Atlanta United FC | Major League Soccer |
| May 11, 2024 | Atlanta United FC 2-3 DC United | Major League Soccer |
Last archived meeting: Atlanta United FC vs DC United on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
DC United score 1.7 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Atlanta United FC score 1.4 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC United | 1.7 | 1.9 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Atlanta United FC | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
DC United sit 9th in Major League Soccer (24 points from 19 matches) and Atlanta United FC sit 15th (15 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | DC United | 19 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 27 | 30 | 24 |
| 15 | Atlanta United FC | 19 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 21 | 34 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for DC United vs Atlanta United FC?
- The Footlab model makes DC United the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Atlanta United FC.
- Where and when is DC United vs Atlanta United FC played?
- DC United vs Atlanta United FC is played on September 12, 2026 at 11:30 PM (UTC) at Audi Field, in the Major League Soccer.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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