Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Four Crosses Construction Arena, Bae Colwyn, Conwy
The Footlab model makes Colwyn Bay the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Cardiff MET. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate Colwyn Bay (1,887) and Cardiff MET (1,807).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Colwyn Bay have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Cardiff MET have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Airbus UK(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ammanford AFC(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Trefelin(home) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bootle(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-5 | Premier League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Barry Town(away) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Airbus UK(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Holywell(home) | 6-1 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Flint Town United(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Colwyn Bay win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Cardiff MET win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2025 | Colwyn Bay 0-0 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| Sep 6, 2025 | Cardiff MET 1-4 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Cardiff MET 3-2 Colwyn Bay | Welsh Cup |
| Sep 30, 2023 | Colwyn Bay 2-2 Cardiff MET | Premier League |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Cardiff MET 1-0 Colwyn Bay | Premier League |
| Oct 16, 2021 | Colwyn Bay 1-0 Cardiff MET | Welsh Cup |
Last archived meeting: Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET on Oct 11, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Colwyn Bay score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Cardiff MET score 1.3 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colwyn Bay | 1.3 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Cardiff MET | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Colwyn Bay sit 9th in Premier League (7 points from 4 matches) and Cardiff MET sit 10th (6 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Colwyn Bay | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET?
- The Footlab model makes Colwyn Bay the favourite at 52%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Cardiff MET.
- Where and when is Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET played?
- Colwyn Bay vs Cardiff MET is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Four Crosses Construction Arena, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.