Holywell vs Penybont: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 14Kick-off on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Bartons North Wales Stadium, Holywell
The Footlab model makes Penybont the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Holywell. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Holywell vs Penybont?
Penybont starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,880 vs 1,734).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Holywell have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Penybont have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Barry Town(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Llandudno(away) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | GAP Connah S Quay FC(home) | 1-3 | Premier League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cardiff MET(away) | 1-6 | Premier League |
| Apr 18, 2026 | Brickfield Rangers(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Llandudno(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Haverfordwest County AFC(away) | 3-0 | Premier League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Caernarfon Town(away) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | The New Saints(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Jul 16, 2026 | FC Santa Coloma(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Holywell win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Penybont win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 5, 2023 | Penybont 2-1 Holywell | Welsh Cup |
How many goals should we expect?
Holywell score 2.0 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Penybont score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Holywell | 2.0 | 2.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Penybont | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Holywell sit 15th in Premier League (0 points from 4 matches) and Penybont sit 3rd (10 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Penybont | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 10 |
| 15 | Holywell | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Holywell vs Penybont?
- The Footlab model makes Penybont the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Holywell.
- Where and when is Holywell vs Penybont played?
- Holywell vs Penybont is played on October 23, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Bartons North Wales Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.