Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 10Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Lokomotiv, Plovdiv
The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
CSKA Sofia starts as the favourite with a 146-point Elo edge (1,951 vs 1,805).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lokomotiv Plovdiv have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; CSKA Sofia have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Dunav Ruse(home) | 1-2 | First League |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Spartak Varna(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Ludogorets(away) | 0-1 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | OFI(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Lokomotiv Plovdiv win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 CSKA Sofia win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-1 CSKA Sofia | Cup |
| Dec 3, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 2-1 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Apr 12, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 2-0 Lokomotiv Plovdiv | First League |
| Nov 2, 2024 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-2 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| May 26, 2024 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv 1-0 CSKA Sofia | First League |
Last archived meeting: Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia on May 20, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; CSKA Sofia score 1.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| CSKA Sofia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lokomotiv Plovdiv sit 11th in First League (3 points from 5 matches) and CSKA Sofia sit 3rd (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
| 11 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 39%, against 31% for a draw and 29% for Lokomotiv Plovdiv.
- Where and when is Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia played?
- Lokomotiv Plovdiv vs CSKA Sofia is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Lokomotiv, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.