Curzon Ashton vs Gainsborough Trinity: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 31Kick-off on February 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Tameside Stadium, Ashton-under-Lyne, Lancashire
The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Curzon Ashton. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Curzon Ashton vs Gainsborough Trinity?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Curzon Ashton (1,710) and Gainsborough Trinity (1,796).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Curzon Ashton have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Gainsborough Trinity have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Guiseley AFC(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(home) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 14, 2026 | AFC Emley(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Bury(away) | 2-3 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Alfreton Town(home) | 1-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bury(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Workington(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
How many goals should we expect?
Curzon Ashton score 1.1 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Gainsborough Trinity score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curzon Ashton | 1.1 | 2.0 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Gainsborough Trinity | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Curzon Ashton sit 16th in Non League Premier - Northern (4 points from 5 matches) and Gainsborough Trinity sit 8th (9 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gainsborough Trinity | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| 16 | Curzon Ashton | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Curzon Ashton vs Gainsborough Trinity?
- The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Curzon Ashton.
- Where and when is Curzon Ashton vs Gainsborough Trinity played?
- Curzon Ashton vs Gainsborough Trinity is played on February 6, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Tameside Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.