Cyprus U21 vs San Marino U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 24Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, Larnaca
The Footlab model makes Cyprus U21 the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for San Marino U21. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cyprus U21 vs San Marino U21?
Cyprus U21 starts as the favourite with a 201-point Elo edge (1,371 vs 1,169).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cyprus U21 have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; San Marino U21 have 0, 0 and 15.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Montenegro U21(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Finland U21(away) | 0-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Spain U21(home) | 0-7 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | San Marino U21(away) | 5-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Kosovo U21(home) | 0-4 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Romania U21(away) | 0-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Finland U21(home) | 0-8 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Cyprus U21(home) | 0-5 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Spain U21(away) | 0-7 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Kosovo U21(away) | 0-7 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Cyprus U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 San Marino U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | San Marino U21 0-5 Cyprus U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: San Marino U21 vs Cyprus U21 on Nov 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Cyprus U21 score 0.9 and concede 3.3 goals per match over their last 15; San Marino U21 score 0.1 and concede 5.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyprus U21 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 1 | 5/15 | 12/15 |
| San Marino U21 | 0.1 | 5.3 | 0 | 1/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cyprus U21 sit 5th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (3 points from 7 matches) and San Marino U21 sit 6th (0 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Cyprus U21 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 24 | 3 |
| 6 | San Marino U21 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 39 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cyprus U21 vs San Marino U21?
- The Footlab model makes Cyprus U21 the favourite at 64%, against 19% for a draw and 17% for San Marino U21.
- Where and when is Cyprus U21 vs San Marino U21 played?
- Cyprus U21 vs San Marino U21 is played on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at AEK Arena - George Karapatakis, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.