Latvia U21 vs Malta U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 24Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadions Skonto, Riga
The Footlab model makes Latvia U21 the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Malta U21. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Latvia U21 vs Malta U21?
Latvia U21 starts as the favourite with a 154-point Elo edge (1,377 vs 1,223).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Latvia U21 have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Malta U21 have 0, 0 and 15.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Northern Ireland U21(home) | 1-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Georgia U21(away) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Malta U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Northern Ireland U21(away) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Greece U21(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 4, 2026 | Moldova U21(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Georgia U21(away) | 1-4 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Greece U21(away) | 0-5 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Latvia U21(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Germany U21(away) | 0-6 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Latvia U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Malta U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | Malta U21 0-1 Latvia U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Malta U21 vs Latvia U21 on Nov 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Latvia U21 score 0.8 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Malta U21 score 0.3 and concede 3.8. The model gives a 66% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia U21 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Malta U21 | 0.3 | 3.8 | 0 | 5/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Latvia U21 sit 5th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (5 points from 7 matches) and Malta U21 sit 6th (0 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Latvia U21 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 5 |
| 6 | Malta U21 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 28 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Latvia U21 vs Malta U21?
- The Footlab model makes Latvia U21 the favourite at 64%, against 20% for a draw and 16% for Malta U21.
- Where and when is Latvia U21 vs Malta U21 played?
- Latvia U21 vs Malta U21 is played on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadions Skonto, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 66% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.