Spain U21 vs Romania U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 24Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, Madrid
The Footlab model makes Spain U21 the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Romania U21. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Spain U21 vs Romania U21?
Spain U21 starts as the favourite with a 217-point Elo edge (1,778 vs 1,562).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Spain U21 have 13 wins, 1 draws and 1 defeats; Romania U21 have 7, 1 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Kosovo U21(home) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Cyprus U21(away) | 7-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Romania U21(away) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | San Marino U21(home) | 7-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Finland U21(home) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | San Marino U21(home) | 3-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Kosovo U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Spain U21(home) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Finland U21(away) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Cyprus U21(home) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 3 Spain U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Romania U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 18, 2025 | Romania U21 0-2 Spain U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Jun 14, 2025 | Spain U21 2-1 Romania U21 | UEFA U21 Championship |
| Jun 21, 2023 | Romania U21 0-3 Spain U21 | UEFA U21 Championship |
Last archived meeting: Romania U21 vs Spain U21 on Nov 18, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Spain U21 score 3.2 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Romania U21 score 1.3 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 64% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spain U21 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 7 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Romania U21 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 6 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Spain U21 sit 1st in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (21 points from 7 matches) and Romania U21 sit 3rd (13 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Spain U21 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 21 |
| 3 | Romania U21 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Spain U21 vs Romania U21?
- The Footlab model makes Spain U21 the favourite at 66%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Romania U21.
- Where and when is Spain U21 vs Romania U21 played?
- Spain U21 vs Romania U21 is played on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 64% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.