Denmark U21 vs Belgium U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 24Kick-off on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Aalborg Portland Park, Aalborg
The Footlab model makes Denmark U21 the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Belgium U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Denmark U21 vs Belgium U21?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Denmark U21 (1,661) and Belgium U21 (1,618).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Denmark U21 have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Belgium U21 have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Wales U21(home) | 4-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Belarus U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | USA U21(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Belgium U21(away) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Austria U21(home) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Netherlands U21(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Austria U21(home) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Austria U21(away) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Denmark U21(home) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Wales U21(away) | 7-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Denmark U21 win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Belgium U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Belgium U21 2-0 Denmark U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 29, 2022 | Denmark U21 1-1 Belgium U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 12, 2021 | Belgium U21 1-0 Denmark U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Belgium U21 vs Denmark U21 on Oct 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Denmark U21 score 2.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Belgium U21 score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark U21 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Belgium U21 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Denmark U21 sit 3rd in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (10 points from 5 matches) and Belgium U21 sit 1st (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belgium U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Denmark U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 5 | 10 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Denmark U21 vs Belgium U21?
- The Footlab model makes Denmark U21 the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Belgium U21.
- Where and when is Denmark U21 vs Belgium U21 played?
- Denmark U21 vs Belgium U21 is played on October 6, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Aalborg Portland Park, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.