Defensor Sporting vs Rentistas: prediction and stats
Copa UruguayRound of 32Kick-off on August 25, 2026 at 09:15 PM (UTC)Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
The Footlab model makes Defensor Sporting the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Rentistas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Rentistas?
Defensor Sporting starts as the favourite with a 120-point Elo edge (1,729 vs 1,609).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Defensor Sporting have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Rentistas have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Cerro Largo(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(home) | 0-4 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Wanderers(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Cerro(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Liverpool Montevideo(home) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Miramar(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tacuarembo(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Plaza Colonia(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | La Luz(away) | 5-2 | Segunda División |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Cerrito(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Defensor Sporting win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Rentistas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 22, 2022 | Defensor Sporting 2-3 Rentistas | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jun 5, 2022 | Rentistas 1-0 Defensor Sporting | Primera División |
| Mar 25, 2021 | Defensor Sporting 0-0 Rentistas | Primera División - Clausura |
| Oct 7, 2020 | Rentistas 2-0 Defensor Sporting | Primera División |
| Mar 6, 2016 | Rentistas 0-1 Defensor Sporting | Primera División - Clausura |
| Sep 11, 2015 | Defensor Sporting 2-0 Rentistas | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Defensor Sporting vs Rentistas on Oct 22, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Defensor Sporting score 0.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Rentistas score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 0.8 | 1.3 | 3 | 8/15 | 5/15 |
| Rentistas | 1.1 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Defensor Sporting vs Rentistas?
- The Footlab model makes Defensor Sporting the favourite at 44%, against 26% for a draw and 30% for Rentistas.
- Where and when is Defensor Sporting vs Rentistas played?
- Defensor Sporting vs Rentistas is played on August 25, 2026 at 09:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio Luis Franzini, in the Copa Uruguay.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.