Progreso vs CA River Plate: prediction and stats
Copa UruguayRound of 32Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo
The Footlab model makes CA River Plate the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Progreso. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Progreso vs CA River Plate?
A very open match: only 3 Elo points separate Progreso (1,623) and CA River Plate (1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Progreso have 3 wins, 0 draws and 12 defeats; CA River Plate have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Club Nacional(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado(home) | 0-2 | Primera División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Central Espanol(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Club Nacional(away) | 1-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado(home) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Paysandu(away) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Miramar(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Sportivo Huracan(home) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tacuarembo(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Uruguay Montevideo(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Progreso win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 CA River Plate win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 14, 2025 | CA River Plate 0-0 Progreso | Primera División - Clausura |
| Mar 23, 2025 | Progreso 2-1 CA River Plate | Primera División |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Progreso 2-0 CA River Plate | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jun 9, 2024 | Progreso 1-0 CA River Plate | Primera División |
| Apr 21, 2024 | CA River Plate 2-2 Progreso | Primera División |
| Oct 9, 2021 | Progreso 1-0 CA River Plate | Primera División - Clausura |
Last archived meeting: CA River Plate vs Progreso on Sep 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Progreso score 0.6 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; CA River Plate score 1.5 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Progreso | 0.6 | 1.4 | 1 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| CA River Plate | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Progreso vs CA River Plate?
- The Footlab model makes CA River Plate the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for Progreso.
- Where and when is Progreso vs CA River Plate played?
- Progreso vs CA River Plate is played on August 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Parque Abraham Paladino, in the Copa Uruguay.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.