Juventud vs Oriental: prediction and stats
Copa UruguayRound of 32Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas, Las Piedras
The Footlab model makes Juventud the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Oriental. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Juventud vs Oriental?
A very open match: only 85 Elo points separate Juventud (1,732) and Oriental (1,647).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Juventud have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Oriental have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Central Espanol(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Atletico Torque(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Cerro Largo(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Albion FC(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | La Luz(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Cerrito(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Atenas(home) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Paysandu(away) | 1-2 | Segunda División |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Sportivo Huracan(home) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Juventud win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Oriental win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 20, 2024 | Oriental 3-0 Juventud | Segunda División |
| Jul 10, 2024 | Juventud 1-1 Oriental | Segunda División |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Juventud 4-2 Oriental | Segunda División |
| Oct 9, 2023 | Oriental 2-1 Juventud | Segunda División |
| May 20, 2023 | Juventud 1-0 Oriental | Segunda División |
| Oct 20, 2018 | Oriental 1-4 Juventud | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Juventud score 1.4 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Oriental score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juventud | 1.4 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 6/15 |
| Oriental | 1.2 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Juventud vs Oriental?
- The Footlab model makes Juventud the favourite at 42%, against 27% for a draw and 31% for Oriental.
- Where and when is Juventud vs Oriental played?
- Juventud vs Oriental is played on August 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal Parque Artigas, in the Copa Uruguay.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.