Penarol vs Atletico Torque: prediction and stats
Copa UruguayRound of 32Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 11:15 PM (UTC)Estadio Campeón del Siglo, Montevideo
The Footlab model makes Penarol the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Torque. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Penarol vs Atletico Torque?
A very open match: only 74 Elo points separate Penarol (1,924) and Atletico Torque (1,850).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Penarol have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Atletico Torque have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Deportivo Maldonado(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Central Espanol(home) | 2-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Wanderers(home) | 5-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Cerro Largo(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Boston River(home) | 3-0 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Wanderers(home) | 5-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Tigre(home) | 2-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Juventud(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Tigre(away) | 1-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Wanderers(home) | 0-2 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Penarol win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Atletico Torque win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Penarol 3-1 Atletico Torque | Primera División |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Atletico Torque 0-2 Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
| May 17, 2025 | Penarol 2-1 Atletico Torque | Primera División |
| Apr 17, 2024 | Penarol 1-3 Atletico Torque | Copa Uruguay |
| Oct 18, 2023 | Atletico Torque 2-3 Penarol | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jul 3, 2023 | Penarol 2-0 Atletico Torque | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Penarol vs Atletico Torque on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Penarol score 1.6 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Torque score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Penarol | 1.6 | 0.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Atletico Torque | 1.8 | 1.1 | 4 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Penarol vs Atletico Torque?
- The Footlab model makes Penarol the favourite at 41%, against 25% for a draw and 34% for Atletico Torque.
- Where and when is Penarol vs Atletico Torque played?
- Penarol vs Atletico Torque is played on August 26, 2026 at 11:15 PM (UTC) at Estadio Campeón del Siglo, in the Copa Uruguay.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.