Plaza Colonia vs Cerro Largo: prediction and stats
Copa UruguayRound of 32Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC)Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar Prandi, Colonia del Sacramento
The Footlab model makes Cerro Largo the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Plaza Colonia. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Plaza Colonia vs Cerro Largo?
A very open match: only 43 Elo points separate Plaza Colonia (1,706) and Cerro Largo (1,750).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Plaza Colonia have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Cerro Largo have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Colón(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Fenix(away) | 4-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Rentistas(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Miramar(home) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Tacuarembo(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Defensor Sporting(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Wanderers(away) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Juventud(home) | 1-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Penarol(away) | 0-3 | Primera División |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Central Espanol(away) | 1-0 | Primera División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Plaza Colonia win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Cerro Largo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 3, 2025 | Plaza Colonia 0-2 Cerro Largo | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jun 23, 2025 | Cerro Largo 0-1 Plaza Colonia | Primera División |
| May 3, 2025 | Cerro Largo 2-1 Plaza Colonia | Primera División |
| Nov 18, 2023 | Cerro Largo 4-0 Plaza Colonia | Primera División - Clausura |
| Jun 4, 2023 | Plaza Colonia 3-3 Cerro Largo | Primera División |
| Apr 15, 2023 | Plaza Colonia 2-0 Cerro Largo | Primera División |
Last archived meeting: Plaza Colonia vs Cerro Largo on Nov 3, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Plaza Colonia score 1.4 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Cerro Largo score 1.0 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plaza Colonia | 1.4 | 0.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Cerro Largo | 1.0 | 1.0 | 5 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Plaza Colonia vs Cerro Largo?
- The Footlab model makes Cerro Largo the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Plaza Colonia.
- Where and when is Plaza Colonia vs Cerro Largo played?
- Plaza Colonia vs Cerro Largo is played on August 26, 2026 at 08:30 PM (UTC) at Parque Cincuentenario Juan Gaspar Prandi, in the Copa Uruguay.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.