Danubio vs Atenas: prediction and stats
Copa UruguayRound of 32Kick-off on August 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo, Montevideo
The Footlab model makes Danubio the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Atenas. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Danubio vs Atenas?
A very open match: only 50 Elo points separate Danubio (1,701) and Atenas (1,651).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Danubio have 1 wins, 7 draws and 7 defeats; Atenas have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Racing Montevideo(home) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Boston River(away) | 0-0 | Primera División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cerro(home) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Albion FC(away) | 2-2 | Primera División |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Atletico Torque(away) | 0-1 | Primera División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Sportivo Huracan(home) | 0-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Uruguay Montevideo(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Oriental(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Colón(home) | 4-1 | Segunda División |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Fenix(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Danubio win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Atenas win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 2021 | Atenas 0-2 Danubio | Segunda División |
| Jun 15, 2021 | Danubio 2-1 Atenas | Segunda División |
| Sep 22, 2018 | Atenas 0-0 Danubio | Primera División - Clausura |
| Apr 1, 2018 | Danubio 5-0 Atenas | Primera División |
| Feb 22, 2015 | Atenas 3-1 Danubio | Primera División - Clausura |
| Aug 24, 2014 | Danubio 2-0 Atenas | Primera División |
How many goals should we expect?
Danubio score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Atenas score 1.7 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 0.7 | 1.3 | 3 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Atenas | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Danubio vs Atenas?
- The Footlab model makes Danubio the favourite at 38%, against 27% for a draw and 35% for Atenas.
- Where and when is Danubio vs Atenas played?
- Danubio vs Atenas is played on August 26, 2026 at 06:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Jardines del Hipódromo, in the Copa Uruguay.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.