Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Stadion De Vliert, 's-Hertogenbosch
The Footlab model makes Den Bosch the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
Den Bosch starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,686 vs 1,543).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Den Bosch have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Jong Ajax have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 5-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Heracles(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Al-Fayha(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Lusail City(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 4-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Den Bosch win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Jong Ajax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | Jong Ajax 3-2 Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Den Bosch 2-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 16, 2025 | Den Bosch 3-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 30, 2024 | Jong Ajax 1-2 Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Jong Ajax 0-2 Den Bosch | Eerste Divisie |
| Dec 1, 2023 | Den Bosch 3-3 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
Last archived meeting: Jong Ajax vs Den Bosch on Mar 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Den Bosch score 1.7 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Jong Ajax score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Den Bosch | 1.7 | 1.7 | 3 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Jong Ajax | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Den Bosch sit 8th in Eerste Divisie (4 points from 3 matches) and Jong Ajax sit 20th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Den Bosch | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| 8 | Den Bosch | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 4 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax?
- The Footlab model makes Den Bosch the favourite at 62%, against 20% for a draw and 18% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax played?
- Den Bosch vs Jong Ajax is played on December 4, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion De Vliert, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.