Vitesse vs VVV Venlo: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC)GelreDome, Arnhem
The Footlab model makes Vitesse the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for VVV Venlo. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Vitesse vs VVV Venlo?
A very open match: only 63 Elo points separate Vitesse (1,721) and VVV Venlo (1,659).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Vitesse have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; VVV Venlo have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(away) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Waalwijk(home) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Al-Jazira(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | AEK Athens FC(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | De Graafschap(home) | 2-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 14, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Heracles(home) | 3-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AS Eupen(home) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Fortuna Köln(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Vitesse win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 VVV Venlo win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 14, 2026 | Vitesse 2-2 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 31, 2025 | VVV Venlo 1-2 Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| Jan 12, 2025 | Vitesse 1-4 VVV Venlo | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2024 | VVV Venlo 0-1 Vitesse | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 22, 2022 | Vitesse 2-2 VVV Venlo | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 2, 2021 | Vitesse 2-0 VVV Venlo | KNVB Beker |
How many goals should we expect?
Vitesse score 1.6 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; VVV Venlo score 1.9 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitesse | 1.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| VVV Venlo | 1.9 | 1.8 | 2 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Vitesse sit 10th in Eerste Divisie (4 points from 3 matches) and VVV Venlo sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 5 | VVV Venlo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 10 | Vitesse | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Vitesse vs VVV Venlo?
- The Footlab model makes Vitesse the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for VVV Venlo.
- Where and when is Vitesse vs VVV Venlo played?
- Vitesse vs VVV Venlo is played on December 5, 2026 at 03:30 PM (UTC) at GelreDome, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.