MVV vs Dordrecht: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 4, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)De Geusselt, Maastricht
The Footlab AI model makes MVV the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Dordrecht. The most likely score is 1-1. If MVV wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win MVV vs Dordrecht?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate MVV (1,585) and Dordrecht (1,595).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for MVV vs Dordrecht
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
MVV
4-2-3-1- 9T. Vinogradac
- 7L. Daneels
- 10O. Dumont
- 16R. Klaasen
- 18E. Sierra
- 24N. El Hamdaoui
- 6F. Dicke
- 17S. Wegen
- 22Sven Bouland
- 21D. Asante
- 1H. Wentges
Dordrecht
4-2-3-1- 77D. Šits
- 21M. Vetkal
- 11N. Rossi
- 6L. Riccio
- 8Senne Vugts
- 10A. Ouarghi
- 4J. Pinas
- 3S. Henderikx
- 5C. Mpanzu
- 22J. van Aken
- 28T. Coremans
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 01:03 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, MVV have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Dordrecht have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 1-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Helmond Sport(home) | 2-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Waalwijk(away) | 1-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 0-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 0-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Den Bosch(away) | 1-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 3-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 18, 2026 | FC OSS(away) | 0-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 11, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 MVV win, 2 draws, 3 Dordrecht wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 6, 2026 | Dordrecht 1-1 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 16, 2025 | MVV 0-1 Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| Apr 25, 2025 | Dordrecht 3-0 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 22, 2024 | MVV 2-1 Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 4, 2024 | MVV 1-3 Dordrecht | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 25, 2023 | Dordrecht 2-2 MVV | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
MVV score 1.3 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Dordrecht score 1.6 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MVV | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Dordrecht | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
MVV sit 7th in Eerste Divisie (16 points from 10 matches) and Dordrecht sit 19th (8 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | MVV | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 20 | 16 |
| 19 | Dordrecht | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 13 | 27 | 8 |
A question about MVV vs Dordrecht?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for MVV vs Dordrecht?
- The Footlab AI model makes MVV the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Dordrecht.
- Where and when is MVV vs Dordrecht played?
- MVV vs Dordrecht is played on December 4, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at De Geusselt, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.