Deportivo Alavés III vs Pasaia KE: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés III the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Deportivo Alavés III vs Pasaia KE?
Deportivo Alavés III starts as the favourite with a 169-point Elo edge (1,799 vs 1,630).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportivo Alavés III have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Pasaia KE have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Portugalete(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Zarautz(home) | 5-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 0-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Añorga(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 12, 2026 | Zamudio(away) | 0-7 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Deportivo Alavés III win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Pasaia KE win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | Pasaia KE 0-0 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2025 | Deportivo Alavés III 0-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 16, 2025 | Pasaia KE 1-0 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 8, 2024 | Deportivo Alavés III 4-1 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 24, 2024 | Pasaia KE 0-0 Deportivo Alavés III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 7, 2023 | Deportivo Alavés III 1-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Pasaia KE vs Deportivo Alavés III on Jan 31, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Deportivo Alavés III score 2.0 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Pasaia KE score 0.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés III | 2.0 | 1.2 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Pasaia KE | 0.8 | 1.7 | 5 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Deportivo Alavés III sit 9th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (53 points from 34 matches) and Pasaia KE sit 14th (36 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Deportivo Alavés III | 34 | 15 | 8 | 11 | 57 | 40 | 53 |
| 14 | Pasaia KE | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 26 | 46 | 36 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Deportivo Alavés III vs Pasaia KE?
- The Footlab model makes Deportivo Alavés III the favourite at 68%, against 20% for a draw and 12% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Deportivo Alavés III vs Pasaia KE played?
- Deportivo Alavés III vs Pasaia KE is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Ciudad Deportiva José Luis Compañón 4, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.