Erandio vs Derio: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab AI model makes Erandio the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Derio. The most likely score is 1-1. If Erandio wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Erandio vs Derio?
A very open match: only 86 Elo points separate Erandio (1,721) and Derio (1,807).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Erandio vs Derio
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Erandio
Not enough data to predict the Erandio lineup.
Derio
Not enough data to predict the Derio lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 05:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 6 matches in all competitions, Erandio have 2 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; Derio have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 0-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Amurrio Club(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eibar III(away) | 1-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 12, 2026 | R. Union B(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Durango(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Beasain(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Salamanca UDS(home) | 3-5 | Copa Federacion |
How many goals should we expect?
Erandio score 1.0 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 6; Derio score 1.0 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erandio | 1.0 | 1.3 | 2 | 2/6 | 2/6 |
| Derio | 1.0 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 6 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Erandio sit 14th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (6 points from 6 matches) and Derio sit 3rd (12 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Derio | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 12 |
| 14 | Erandio | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 6 |
A question about Erandio vs Derio?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Erandio vs Derio?
- The Footlab AI model makes Erandio the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 34% for Derio.
- Where and when is Erandio vs Derio played?
- Erandio vs Derio is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC), in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.