San Ignacio vs Aretxabaleta: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 33Kick-off on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos, Gasteiz
The Footlab model makes San Ignacio the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win San Ignacio vs Aretxabaleta?
A very open match: only 80 Elo points separate San Ignacio (1,776) and Aretxabaleta (1,695).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, San Ignacio have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Aretxabaleta have 6, 1 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | La Calzada(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 9, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Deportivo Alavés III(home) | 0-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Aurrerá Vitoria(away) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Leioa(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 9, 2026 | Zamudio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-5 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 15, 2026 | Pasaia KE(away) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Apr 11, 2026 | Lagun Onak(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 San Ignacio win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Aretxabaleta win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2026 | San Ignacio 0-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 0-0 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 16, 2025 | San Ignacio 4-1 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Aretxabaleta 1-0 San Ignacio | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: San Ignacio vs Aretxabaleta on Mar 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
San Ignacio score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Aretxabaleta score 2.0 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Ignacio | 1.3 | 0.8 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Aretxabaleta | 2.0 | 2.4 | 1 | 13/15 | 14/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
San Ignacio sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (55 points from 34 matches) and Aretxabaleta sit 10th (45 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | San Ignacio | 34 | 16 | 7 | 11 | 37 | 27 | 55 |
| 10 | Aretxabaleta | 34 | 13 | 6 | 15 | 56 | 61 | 45 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for San Ignacio vs Aretxabaleta?
- The Footlab model makes San Ignacio the favourite at 57%, against 23% for a draw and 20% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is San Ignacio vs Aretxabaleta played?
- San Ignacio vs Aretxabaleta is played on May 2, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Los Astrónomos, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.