Derby vs Millwall: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 27Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes Millwall the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Millwall wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs Millwall?
A very open match: only 83 Elo points separate Derby (1,879) and Millwall (1,962).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs Millwall
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Millwall
4-2-3-1- 13L. Dykes
- 14Jenson Metcalfe
- 10C. Neghli
- 49D. Mazou-Sacko
- 22K. Lisbie
- 17M. Sykes
- 5J. Cooper
- 6C. Taylor
- 3Zak Norton Sturge
- 2J. Osei-Tutu
- 34F. Marschall
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 07:21 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; Millwall have 6, 4 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Swansea(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Preston(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Derby wins, 3 draws, 3 Millwall wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Millwall 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Derby 1-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Derby 0-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Millwall 1-1 Derby | Championship |
| Feb 23, 2022 | Derby 1-2 Millwall | Championship |
| Nov 6, 2021 | Millwall 1-1 Derby | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Millwall score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Millwall | 1.3 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 23rd in Championship (6 points from 9 matches) and Millwall sit 10th (14 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 16 | 14 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Derby vs Millwall?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs Millwall?
- The Footlab AI model makes Millwall the favourite at 37%, against 28% for a draw and 35% for Derby.
- Where and when is Derby vs Millwall played?
- Derby vs Millwall is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.