Millwall vs Derby: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 13Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Den, London
The Footlab AI model makes Millwall the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If Millwall wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,343 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Millwall vs Derby?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Millwall (2,017) and Derby (1,923).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Millwall vs Derby
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Millwall
4-2-3-1- 13L. Dykes
- 14Jenson Metcalfe
- 10C. Neghli
- 7T. Arconte
- 49D. Mazou-Sacko
- 22K. Lisbie
- 5J. Cooper
- 6C. Taylor
- 3Zak Norton Sturge
- 2J. Osei-Tutu
- 34F. Marschall
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 08:21 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Millwall have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Derby have 2, 4 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Preston(away) | 1-0 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Middlesbrough(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Blackburn(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Millwall wins, 3 draws, 0 Derby wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Millwall 1-0 Derby | Championship |
| Dec 10, 2025 | Derby 1-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Derby 0-1 Millwall | Championship |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Millwall 1-1 Derby | Championship |
| Feb 23, 2022 | Derby 1-2 Millwall | Championship |
| Nov 6, 2021 | Millwall 1-1 Derby | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Millwall score 1.3 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.3 | 1.3 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Millwall sit 8th in Championship (14 points from 9 matches) and Derby sit 23rd (6 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Millwall | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Millwall vs Derby?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Millwall vs Derby?
- The Footlab AI model makes Millwall the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 26% for Derby.
- Where and when is Millwall vs Derby played?
- Millwall vs Derby is played on October 31, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Den, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.