QPR vs Southampton: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 27Kick-off on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)MATRADE Loftus Road, London
The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for QPR. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win QPR vs Southampton?
Southampton starts as the favourite with a 174-point Elo edge (2,034 vs 1,860).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, QPR have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Southampton have 10, 3 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bolton(home) | 0-0 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Portsmouth(away) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | AFC Wimbledon(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Bromley(away) | 7-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stoke City(home) | 3-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Watford(away) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Colchester(away) | 2-0 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Preußen Münster(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Eintracht Braunschweig(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 QPR win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Southampton win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Southampton 5-0 QPR | Championship |
| Nov 5, 2025 | QPR 1-2 Southampton | Championship |
| Dec 23, 2023 | QPR 0-1 Southampton | Championship |
| Aug 26, 2023 | Southampton 2-1 QPR | Championship |
| Feb 7, 2015 | QPR 0-1 Southampton | Premier League |
| Sep 27, 2014 | Southampton 2-1 QPR | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
QPR score 1.7 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Southampton score 1.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QPR | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
| Southampton | 1.9 | 1.0 | 4 | 11/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
QPR sit 5th in Championship (4 points from 2 matches) and Southampton sit 24th (-1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | QPR | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 |
| 24 | Southampton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for QPR vs Southampton?
- The Footlab model makes Southampton the favourite at 39%, against 27% for a draw and 34% for QPR.
- Where and when is QPR vs Southampton played?
- QPR vs Southampton is played on January 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at MATRADE Loftus Road, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.