Derby vs West Ham: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 42Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Pride Park Stadium, Derby
The Footlab AI model makes West Ham the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Derby. The most likely score is 1-1. If West Ham wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Derby vs West Ham?
West Ham starts as the favourite with a 242-point Elo edge (2,121 vs 1,879).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Derby vs West Ham
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Derby
4-2-3-1- 9C. Morris
- 11S. Szmodics
- 8B. Clark
- 20A. Mowatt
- 4D. Ozoh
- 16M. Fuseini
- 6S. Langås
- 28D. Sanderson
- 26R. Hedges
- 23J. Ward
- 31J. Vickers
West Ham
4-4-2- 11V. Castellanos
- 9J. Piroe
- 7A. Engels
- 14D. Mukasa
- 20J. Bowen
- 10M. Solomon
- 3M. Kilman
- 15K. Mavropanos
- 2K. Walker-Peters
- 5Morato
- 1M. Hermansen
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:44 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Derby have 2 wins, 4 draws and 9 defeats; West Ham have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Birmingham(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Sep 9, 2026 | West Brom(home) | 0-1 | Championship |
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham(away) | 0-3 | Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 9, 2026 | QPR(home) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Fulham(home) | 2-3 | League Cup |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Wrexham(home) | 6-0 | Championship |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Bolton(away) | 3-2 | Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Derby win, 0 draws, 3 West Ham wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 5, 2026 | West Ham 3-0 Derby | Championship |
| Jan 30, 2023 | Derby 0-2 West Ham | FA Cup |
| Dec 31, 2011 | Derby 2-1 West Ham | Championship |
| Nov 26, 2011 | West Ham 3-1 Derby | Championship |
How many goals should we expect?
Derby score 1.0 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; West Ham score 2.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| West Ham | 2.5 | 1.2 | 4 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Derby sit 23rd in Championship (6 points from 9 matches) and West Ham sit 5th (16 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | 16 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 6 |
A question about Derby vs West Ham?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Derby vs West Ham?
- The Footlab AI model makes West Ham the favourite at 55%, against 25% for a draw and 20% for Derby.
- Where and when is Derby vs West Ham played?
- Derby vs West Ham is played on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Pride Park Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.