West Ham vs Watford: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 43Kick-off on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)London Stadium, London
The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Watford. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win West Ham vs Watford?
West Ham starts as the favourite with a 257-point Elo edge (2,068 vs 1,811).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, West Ham have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Watford have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Charlton(home) | 1-2 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Burnley(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Portsmouth(home) | 3-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | 1. FC Magdeburg(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Rangers(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Wrexham(away) | 1-1 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Southampton(home) | 2-1 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Crawley Town(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Fiorentina(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Hansa Rostock(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 West Ham win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Watford win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2022 | West Ham 1-0 Watford | Premier League |
| Dec 28, 2021 | Watford 1-4 West Ham | Premier League |
| Jul 17, 2020 | West Ham 3-1 Watford | Premier League |
| Aug 24, 2019 | Watford 1-3 West Ham | Premier League |
| May 12, 2019 | Watford 1-4 West Ham | Premier League |
| Dec 22, 2018 | West Ham 0-2 Watford | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
West Ham score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Watford score 0.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham | 1.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Watford | 0.9 | 1.7 | 3 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
West Ham sit 17th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Watford sit 7th (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Watford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | West Ham | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for West Ham vs Watford?
- The Footlab model makes West Ham the favourite at 62%, against 23% for a draw and 15% for Watford.
- Where and when is West Ham vs Watford played?
- West Ham vs Watford is played on April 17, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at London Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.