Bristol City vs Burnley: prediction and stats
ChampionshipRegular Season - 42Kick-off on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
The Footlab model makes Burnley the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Bristol City. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bristol City vs Burnley?
A very open match: only 73 Elo points separate Bristol City (1,838) and Burnley (1,911).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bristol City have 3 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats; Burnley have 0, 6 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Birmingham(away) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Millwall(home) | 0-2 | Championship |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Walsall(home) | 0-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Exeter City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Plymouth(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | West Brom(away) | 1-3 | Championship |
| Aug 16, 2026 | West Ham(home) | 2-2 | Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Notts County(home) | 1-1 | League Cup |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Torino(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Bristol City win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Burnley win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 29, 2025 | Burnley 1-0 Bristol City | Championship |
| Nov 23, 2024 | Bristol City 0-1 Burnley | Championship |
| Apr 29, 2023 | Bristol City 1-2 Burnley | Championship |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Burnley 2-1 Bristol City | Championship |
| Jan 28, 2017 | Burnley 2-0 Bristol City | FA Cup |
| Dec 28, 2015 | Burnley 4-0 Bristol City | Championship |
Last archived meeting: Burnley vs Bristol City on Mar 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Bristol City score 1.3 and concede 1.4 goals per match over their last 15; Burnley score 1.0 and concede 2.1. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bristol City | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Burnley | 1.0 | 2.1 | 0 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bristol City sit 19th in Championship (1 points from 2 matches) and Burnley sit 18th (1 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Burnley | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 19 | Bristol City | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bristol City vs Burnley?
- The Footlab model makes Burnley the favourite at 36%, against 28% for a draw and 36% for Bristol City.
- Where and when is Bristol City vs Burnley played?
- Bristol City vs Burnley is played on April 10, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Ashton Gate Stadium, in the Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.