Desenzano Calvina vs Athletic Carpi: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 17Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Tre Stelle, Desenzano del Garda
The Footlab AI model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Carpi. The most likely score is 1-1. If Desenzano Calvina wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.1% of the 5,441 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Nov 11, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Desenzano Calvina vs Athletic Carpi?
Desenzano Calvina starts as the favourite with a 130-point Elo edge (1,861 vs 1,731).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Desenzano Calvina vs Athletic Carpi
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Desenzano Calvina
4-3-3- 77Filippo Liberati
- 9C. Santini
- 10V. Millico
- 43L. Lupano
- 24K. Biondi
- 30A. Procaccio
- 6T. Panelli
- 19A. Pilati
- 3L. Giorgi
- 70M. Parlato
- 1Stefano Minelli
Athletic Carpi
4-3-3- 90V. Vitale
- 18T. Carcani
- 83A. Sall
- 10F. Casarini
- 11F. Puletto
- 5M. Figoli
- 4D. Zagnoni
- 7T. Cecotti
- 17L. Lombardi
- 24Fabio Desole
- 1Alessandro Scacchetti
Computed on November 11, 2026 at 07:54 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Desenzano Calvina have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Athletic Carpi have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Ospitaletto(home) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Nov 2, 2026 | Novara(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Dolomiti Bellunesi(away) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Oct 25, 2026 | Giana Erminio(home) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Alcione(away) | 1-4 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 8, 2026 | Folgore Caratese(away) | 0-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Nov 1, 2026 | Renate(home) | 0-5 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 28, 2026 | Ravenna(home) | 3-3 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Oct 24, 2026 | Alcione(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 17, 2026 | Lumezzane(home) | 3-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
How many goals should we expect?
Desenzano Calvina score 0.8 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Athletic Carpi score 1.3 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Desenzano Calvina | 0.8 | 1.0 | 6 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Athletic Carpi | 1.3 | 2.0 | 2 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Desenzano Calvina sit 13th in Serie C - Girone A (13 points from 13 matches) and Athletic Carpi sit 15th (13 points from 13 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Desenzano Calvina | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 15 | 13 |
| 15 | Athletic Carpi | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 13 |
A question about Desenzano Calvina vs Athletic Carpi?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Desenzano Calvina vs Athletic Carpi?
- The Footlab AI model makes Desenzano Calvina the favourite at 42%, against 29% for a draw and 29% for Athletic Carpi.
- Where and when is Desenzano Calvina vs Athletic Carpi played?
- Desenzano Calvina vs Athletic Carpi is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Tre Stelle, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.1% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.