Giana Erminio vs Novara: prediction and stats
Serie C - Girone AGirone A - 17Kick-off on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Comunale, Gorgonzola
The Footlab model makes Novara the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Giana Erminio. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Giana Erminio vs Novara?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Giana Erminio (1,756) and Novara (1,757).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Giana Erminio have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Novara have 6, 3 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Albinoleffe(home) | 1-2 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Folgore Caratese(home) | 1-1 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Cremonese(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 6, 2026 | Lecco(away) | 1-2 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| May 3, 2026 | Trento(away) | 2-1 | Serie C - Promotion - Play-offs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Juventus U23(away) | 0-1 | Serie C - Girone A |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Alcione(away) | 1-0 | Coppa Italia Serie C |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Virtus Entella(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sampdoria(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Ospitaletto(away) | 2-0 | Serie C - Girone A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Giana Erminio win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Novara win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | Novara 3-1 Giana Erminio | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 11, 2025 | Giana Erminio 0-0 Novara | Serie C - Girone A |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Novara 0-1 Giana Erminio | Serie C - Girone A |
| Oct 25, 2024 | Giana Erminio 2-2 Novara | Serie C - Girone A |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Giana Erminio 0-1 Novara | Serie C - Girone A |
| Sep 24, 2023 | Novara 1-1 Giana Erminio | Serie C - Girone A |
Last archived meeting: Novara vs Giana Erminio on Feb 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Giana Erminio score 1.2 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Novara score 1.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 37% probability of over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Giana Erminio | 1.2 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Novara | 1.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Giana Erminio sit 15th in Serie C - Girone A (0 points from 1 matches) and Novara sit 18th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Giana Erminio | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Novara | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Giana Erminio vs Novara?
- The Footlab model makes Novara the favourite at 36%, against 31% for a draw and 33% for Giana Erminio.
- Where and when is Giana Erminio vs Novara played?
- Giana Erminio vs Novara is played on December 6, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Comunale, in the Serie C - Girone A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 37% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.