Dila vs Gagra: prediction and stats
Erovnuli LigaRegular Season - 24Kick-off on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Stadioni Tengiz Burjanadze, Gori
The Footlab model makes Dila the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Gagra. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dila vs Gagra?
Dila starts as the favourite with a 123-point Elo edge (1,716 vs 1,593).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dila have 6 wins, 2 draws and 7 defeats; Gagra have 5, 5 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Torpedo Kutaisi(home) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Meshakhte(home) | 3-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gori(away) | 2-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Apollon Limassol(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Iberia 2010(away) | 1-0 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Rustavi(away) | 0-3 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Spaeri(home) | 1-1 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Dinamo Batumi(away) | 2-2 | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Gareji(away) | 4-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Samtskhe Akhaltsikhe(away) | 2-1 | David Kipiani Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Dila win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Gagra win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | Gagra 2-0 Dila | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 7, 2026 | Dila 1-1 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Dila 5-0 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Aug 10, 2025 | Gagra 0-1 Dila | Erovnuli Liga |
| Apr 28, 2025 | Dila 2-0 Gagra | Erovnuli Liga |
| Mar 6, 2025 | Gagra 0-0 Dila | Erovnuli Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Dila score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Gagra score 1.2 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dila | 1.4 | 1.5 | 4 | 6/15 | 9/15 |
| Gagra | 1.2 | 1.3 | 2 | 9/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dila sit 7th in Erovnuli Liga (30 points from 21 matches) and Gagra sit 8th (24 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Dila | 21 | 9 | 3 | 9 | 26 | 22 | 30 |
| 8 | Gagra | 22 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 21 | 30 | 24 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dila vs Gagra?
- The Footlab model makes Dila the favourite at 51%, against 25% for a draw and 23% for Gagra.
- Where and when is Dila vs Gagra played?
- Dila vs Gagra is played on September 5, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Stadioni Tengiz Burjanadze, in the Erovnuli Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.