Dover vs Ebbsfleet United: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 24Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Perrys Crabble Stadium, Dover, Kent
The Footlab model makes Ebbsfleet United the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Dover. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dover vs Ebbsfleet United?
A very open match: only 90 Elo points separate Dover (1,722) and Ebbsfleet United (1,812).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dover have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Ebbsfleet United have 8, 0 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(away) | 3-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Tonbridge Angels(home) | 0-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Slough Town(home) | 5-3 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Billericay Town(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Carshalton Athletic(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cray Valley PM(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | West Ham United U21(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Dartford(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Worthing(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Dover win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Ebbsfleet United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United 4-0 Dover | National League - South |
| Dec 30, 2025 | Dover 1-2 Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| Jan 14, 2023 | Dover 1-2 Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| Sep 17, 2022 | Ebbsfleet United 2-0 Dover | FA Cup |
| Aug 29, 2022 | Ebbsfleet United 3-0 Dover | National League - South |
| Sep 19, 2020 | Ebbsfleet United 2-1 Dover | Friendlies Clubs |
Last archived meeting: Ebbsfleet United vs Dover on Apr 6, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dover score 1.2 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Ebbsfleet United score 1.9 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dover | 1.2 | 1.8 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Ebbsfleet United | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Dover | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dover vs Ebbsfleet United?
- The Footlab model makes Ebbsfleet United the favourite at 44%, against 24% for a draw and 31% for Dover.
- Where and when is Dover vs Ebbsfleet United played?
- Dover vs Ebbsfleet United is played on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Perrys Crabble Stadium, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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