Torquay vs Salisbury: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 24Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Plainmoor Ground, Torquay, Devon
The Footlab model makes Torquay the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Salisbury. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Torquay vs Salisbury?
Torquay starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (1,872 vs 1,756).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Torquay have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Salisbury have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dagenham & Redbridge(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Weston-super-Mare(home) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Tonbridge Angels(away) | 2-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Horsham(home) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Exeter City(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Hemel Hempstead Town(home) | 1-2 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Horsham(away) | 0-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Hampton & Richmond(home) | 5-0 | National League - South |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Havant & Wville(home) | 5-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Frome Town(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Torquay win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Salisbury win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 10, 2026 | Torquay 2-1 Salisbury | National League - South |
| Oct 4, 2025 | Salisbury 0-1 Torquay | National League - South |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Torquay 2-2 Salisbury | National League - South |
| Nov 5, 2024 | Salisbury 0-1 Torquay | National League - South |
How many goals should we expect?
Torquay score 2.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Salisbury score 2.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torquay | 2.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 10/15 | 11/15 |
| Salisbury | 2.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Torquay sit 13th in National League - South (5 points from 4 matches) and Salisbury sit 15th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Torquay | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| 15 | Salisbury | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Torquay vs Salisbury?
- The Footlab model makes Torquay the favourite at 55%, against 23% for a draw and 22% for Salisbury.
- Where and when is Torquay vs Salisbury played?
- Torquay vs Salisbury is played on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Plainmoor Ground, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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