East End Lions vs AFAD: prediction and stats
CAF Confederation Cup1st Preliminary RoundKick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Trade Centre Field, Freetown
The Footlab model makes East End Lions the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for AFAD. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win East End Lions vs AFAD?
AFAD starts as the favourite with a 223-point Elo edge (1,716 vs 1,493).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 4 matches in all competitions, East End Lions have 0 wins, 0 draws and 4 defeats; AFAD have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 28, 2025 | US Monastirienne(away) | 1-3 | CAF Champions League |
| Sep 21, 2025 | US Monastirienne(home) | 0-4 | CAF Champions League |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Jaraaf(away) | 0-3 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Jaraaf(home) | 0-1 | CAF Confederation Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 24, 2026 | SOL(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2026 | Olympique Sport d'Abobo(home) | 8-0 | Ligue 1 |
| May 10, 2026 | SOA(home) | 3-2 | Ligue 1 |
| May 4, 2026 | Stade d'Abidjan(away) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Mouna(away) | 1-0 | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
East End Lions score 0.3 and concede 2.8 goals per match over their last 4; AFAD score 1.8 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 38% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| East End Lions | 0.3 | 2.8 | 0 | 1/4 | 3/4 |
| AFAD | 1.8 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 4 matches in all competitions.
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for East End Lions vs AFAD?
- The Footlab model makes East End Lions the favourite at 47%, against 30% for a draw and 23% for AFAD.
- Where and when is East End Lions vs AFAD played?
- East End Lions vs AFAD is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Trade Centre Field, in the CAF Confederation Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 38% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.