Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead Town: prediction and stats
National League - SouthNational League South - 8Kick-off on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC)Kuflink Stadium, Northfleet, Kent
The Footlab model makes Ebbsfleet United the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Hemel Hempstead Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
A very open match: only 22 Elo points separate Ebbsfleet United (1,817) and Hemel Hempstead Town (1,839).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ebbsfleet United have 8 wins, 0 draws and 7 defeats; Hemel Hempstead Town have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 31, 2026 | Gillingham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Cray Valley PM(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 21, 2026 | West Ham United U21(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 7, 2026 | Dartford(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Worthing(away) | 0-2 | National League - South |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Salisbury(away) | 2-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Maidenhead(home) | 0-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Farnborough(away) | 2-0 | National League - South |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chelmsford City(home) | 1-1 | National League - South |
| Aug 1, 2026 | St Albans City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Ebbsfleet United win(s), 4 draw(s), 0 Hemel Hempstead Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 3, 2026 | Ebbsfleet United 2-2 Hemel Hempstead Town | National League - South |
| Sep 2, 2025 | Hemel Hempstead Town 0-0 Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| Mar 4, 2023 | Ebbsfleet United 0-0 Hemel Hempstead Town | National League - South |
| Oct 29, 2022 | Hemel Hempstead Town 1-1 Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| Jan 8, 2022 | Hemel Hempstead Town 1-3 Ebbsfleet United | National League - South |
| Aug 28, 2021 | Ebbsfleet United 3-1 Hemel Hempstead Town | National League - South |
Last archived meeting: Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead Town on Feb 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ebbsfleet United score 1.9 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Hemel Hempstead Town score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebbsfleet United | 1.9 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 13/15 |
| Hemel Hempstead Town | 1.1 | 0.9 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead Town?
- The Footlab model makes Ebbsfleet United the favourite at 45%, against 27% for a draw and 28% for Hemel Hempstead Town.
- Where and when is Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead Town played?
- Ebbsfleet United vs Hemel Hempstead Town is played on September 8, 2026 at 06:45 PM (UTC) at Kuflink Stadium, in the National League - South.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 8, 2026Dagenham & RedbridgevsDover
- Sep 8, 2026MaidenheadvsTorquay
- Sep 8, 2026Hampton & RichmondvsFarnborough
- Sep 8, 2026Weston-super-MarevsAFC Totton
- Sep 8, 2026Chesham UnitedvsBillericay Town
- Sep 8, 2026Folkestone InvictavsHorsham
- Sep 8, 2026SalisburyvsSlough Town
- Sep 8, 2026Dorking WanderersvsChelmsford City