Eibar III vs Aretxabaleta: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, Eibar
The Footlab AI model makes Eibar III the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Aretxabaleta. The most likely score is 1-1. If Eibar III wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.6% of the 3,509 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 25, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eibar III vs Aretxabaleta?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Eibar III (1,715) and Aretxabaleta (1,762).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Eibar III vs Aretxabaleta
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Eibar III
Not enough data to predict the Eibar III lineup.
Aretxabaleta
Not enough data to predict the Aretxabaleta lineup.
Computed on October 25, 2026 at 05:25 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eibar III have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Aretxabaleta have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 10, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 2-3 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Erandio(home) | 3-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 18, 2026 | R. Union B(away) | 2-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Pasaia KE(home) | 4-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Lagun Onak(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Durango(away) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Eibar III wins, 1 draw, 1 Aretxabaleta win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Eibar III 4-2 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 4-0 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 4, 2025 | Aretxabaleta 0-1 Eibar III | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 22, 2024 | Eibar III 0-0 Aretxabaleta | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
Last archived meeting: Eibar III vs Aretxabaleta on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Eibar III score 1.9 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Aretxabaleta score 1.5 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar III | 1.9 | 1.6 | 2 | 12/15 | 11/15 |
| Aretxabaleta | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eibar III sit 13th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (8 points from 7 matches) and Aretxabaleta sit 5th (14 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Aretxabaleta | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 14 |
| 13 | Eibar III | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
A question about Eibar III vs Aretxabaleta?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eibar III vs Aretxabaleta?
- The Footlab AI model makes Eibar III the favourite at 50%, against 23% for a draw and 27% for Aretxabaleta.
- Where and when is Eibar III vs Aretxabaleta played?
- Eibar III vs Aretxabaleta is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.