Pasaia KE vs Durango: prediction and stats
Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Group 4 - 25Kick-off on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora, Errenteria
The Footlab AI model makes Durango the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Pasaia KE. The most likely score is 1-1. If Durango wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,451 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Pasaia KE vs Durango?
A very open match: only 94 Elo points separate Pasaia KE (1,652) and Durango (1,746).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Pasaia KE vs Durango
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Pasaia KE
Not enough data to predict the Pasaia KE lineup.
Durango
Not enough data to predict the Durango lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 06:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Pasaia KE have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Durango have 4, 6 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(away) | 2-4 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Santurtzi(home) | 1-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | San Ignacio(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Real Sociedad III(home) | 3-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Leioa(away) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Derio(home) | 1-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Touring(away) | 2-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Beasain(away) | 2-1 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Aretxabaleta(home) | 0-0 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Santurtzi(away) | 1-2 | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Pasaia KE win, 3 draws, 2 Durango wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Durango 0-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Pasaia KE 0-2 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| May 10, 2025 | Durango 0-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Pasaia KE 3-2 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Durango 1-0 Pasaia KE | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
| Sep 16, 2023 | Pasaia KE 1-1 Durango | Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 |
How many goals should we expect?
Pasaia KE score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Durango score 1.3 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pasaia KE | 1.1 | 1.7 | 4 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Durango | 1.3 | 1.4 | 4 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Pasaia KE sit 7th in Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 (10 points from 6 matches) and Durango sit 11th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Pasaia KE | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| 11 | Durango | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
A question about Pasaia KE vs Durango?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Pasaia KE vs Durango?
- The Footlab AI model makes Durango the favourite at 39%, against 28% for a draw and 33% for Pasaia KE.
- Where and when is Pasaia KE vs Durango played?
- Pasaia KE vs Durango is played on March 7, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Campo de fútbol Jesus Mari Zamora, in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 4.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.