Eibar vs Castellón: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 40Kick-off on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, Eibar
The Footlab AI model makes Eibar the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Castellón. The most likely score is 1-1. If Eibar wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Eibar vs Castellón?
A very open match: only 9 Elo points separate Eibar (2,071) and Castellón (2,063).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Eibar vs Castellón
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Eibar
4-2-3-1- 9Jon Bautista
- 30Aleix Garrido
- 8Ander Madariaga
- 7Malcom Adu
- 10Jon Guruzeta
- 11Jon Magunazelaia
- 23Anaitz Arbilla
- 4Unai Elgezabal
- 24Juan Bernat
- 22Álvaro Rodríguez
- 13Jon Mikel
Castellón
4-4-2- 10Israel Suero
- 9Ousmane Camara
- 8Barri
- 16A. Jakobsen
- 18Pablo Santiago
- 14Iñigo Córdoba
- 5Alberto Jiménez
- 4A. Sienra
- 22J. Mellot
- 12Lucas Alcázar
- 13R. Matthys
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 09:09 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Eibar have 9 wins, 3 draws and 3 defeats; Castellón have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 1-3 | Segunda División |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Albacete(away) | 3-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Las Palmas(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Eldense(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(away) | 4-0 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 5-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Girona(away) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Eibar win, 1 draw, 2 Castellón wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 31, 2026 | Castellón 2-1 Eibar | Segunda División |
| Oct 12, 2025 | Eibar 0-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Feb 15, 2025 | Castellón 2-0 Eibar | Segunda División |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Eibar 1-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
How many goals should we expect?
Eibar score 2.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Castellón score 1.5 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eibar | 2.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Castellón | 1.5 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Eibar sit 2nd in Segunda División (21 points from 9 matches) and Castellón sit 3rd (20 points from 9 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Eibar | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 10 | 21 |
| 3 | Castellón | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 4 | 20 |
A question about Eibar vs Castellón?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Eibar vs Castellón?
- The Footlab AI model makes Eibar the favourite at 42%, against 26% for a draw and 32% for Castellón.
- Where and when is Eibar vs Castellón played?
- Eibar vs Castellón is played on May 23, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Ipurúa, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.