Elche vs Atletico Madrid: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 14Kick-off on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Elche. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elche vs Atletico Madrid?
Atletico Madrid starts as the favourite with a 199-point Elo edge (2,241 vs 2,041).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elche have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Atletico Madrid have 7, 2 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Barcelona(home) | 0-5 | La Liga |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Cordoba(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Al Ain(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Kaizer Chiefs(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 2-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Malaga(home) | 2-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Marseille(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Manchester City(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Manchester United(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Elche win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Atletico Madrid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Elche 3-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Atletico Madrid 1-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Jan 15, 2025 | Elche 0-4 Atletico Madrid | Copa del Rey |
| May 14, 2023 | Elche 1-0 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
| Dec 29, 2022 | Atletico Madrid 2-0 Elche | La Liga |
| May 11, 2022 | Elche 0-2 Atletico Madrid | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Elche vs Atletico Madrid on Apr 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Elche score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Madrid score 1.6 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2 | 11/15 | 9/15 |
| Atletico Madrid | 1.6 | 1.5 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Elche sit 15th in La Liga (1 points from 2 matches) and Atletico Madrid sit 3rd (4 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Atletico Madrid | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 4 |
| 15 | Elche | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elche vs Atletico Madrid?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Madrid the favourite at 39%, against 26% for a draw and 35% for Elche.
- Where and when is Elche vs Atletico Madrid played?
- Elche vs Atletico Madrid is played on November 29, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.