Elche vs Rayo Vallecano: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, Elche
The Footlab AI model makes Elche the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Rayo Vallecano. The most likely score is 1-1. If Elche wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Elche vs Rayo Vallecano?
A very open match: only 59 Elo points separate Elche (2,022) and Rayo Vallecano (2,080).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Elche vs Rayo Vallecano
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Elche
5-3-2- 14Fer Niño
- 20Tete Morente
- 12Gonzalo Villar
- 8Marc Aguado
- 18T. Lemar
- 11Germán Valera
- 23Víctor Chust
- 3R. Revivo
- 47J. Morcillo
- 2Buba Sangaré
- 1M. Dituro
Rayo Vallecano
4-3-3- 10Sergio Camello
- 18Álvaro García
- 19Jorge de Frutos
- 8Unai López
- 6P. Ciss
- 23Óscar Valentín
- 24F. Lejeune
- 2A. Rațiu
- 17Adrià Pedrosa
- 15Mujaid Sadick
- 25E. Audero
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 12:23 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Elche have 3 wins, 7 draws and 5 defeats; Rayo Vallecano have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Espanyol(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Real Madrid(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 7, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-3 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 19, 2026 | Osasuna(away) | 1-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Espanyol(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Real Madrid(away) | 1-4 | La Liga |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 3-2 | La Liga |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Barcelona(away) | 2-5 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Elche wins, 0 draws, 3 Rayo Vallecano wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 3, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Elche | La Liga |
| Dec 21, 2025 | Elche 4-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Apr 29, 2023 | Elche 4-0 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Oct 3, 2022 | Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche | La Liga |
| Feb 18, 2022 | Elche 2-1 Rayo Vallecano | La Liga |
| Oct 17, 2021 | Rayo Vallecano 2-1 Elche | La Liga |
Last archived meeting: Rayo Vallecano vs Elche on Apr 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Elche score 1.4 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Rayo Vallecano score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1.4 | 1.7 | 2 | 12/15 | 9/15 |
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Elche sit 18th in La Liga (6 points from 8 matches) and Rayo Vallecano sit 13th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 8 |
| 18 | Elche | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 17 | 6 |
A question about Elche vs Rayo Vallecano?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Elche vs Rayo Vallecano?
- The Footlab AI model makes Elche the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Rayo Vallecano.
- Where and when is Elche vs Rayo Vallecano played?
- Elche vs Rayo Vallecano is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.