Valencia vs Sevilla: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mestalla, Valencia
The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Sevilla. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Valencia vs Sevilla?
A very open match: only 42 Elo points separate Valencia (2,098) and Sevilla (2,055).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Valencia have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Sevilla have 8, 1 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Celta Vigo(home) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Stoke City(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Derby(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Castellón(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Rayo Vallecano(home) | 2-1 | La Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Utrecht(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | NEC Nijmegen(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Valencia win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Sevilla win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Sevilla 0-2 Valencia | La Liga |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Valencia 1-1 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Apr 11, 2025 | Valencia 1-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Sevilla 1-1 Valencia | La Liga |
| Feb 17, 2024 | Valencia 0-0 Sevilla | La Liga |
| Aug 11, 2023 | Sevilla 1-2 Valencia | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Valencia score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Sevilla score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 1.4 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
| Sevilla | 1.2 | 1.1 | 3 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Valencia sit 11th in La Liga (1 points from 1 matches) and Sevilla sit 1st (6 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sevilla | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 11 | Valencia | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Valencia vs Sevilla?
- The Footlab model makes Valencia the favourite at 53%, against 26% for a draw and 20% for Sevilla.
- Where and when is Valencia vs Sevilla played?
- Valencia vs Sevilla is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mestalla, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.