Alaves vs Barcelona: prediction and stats
La LigaRegular Season - 21Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio de Mendizorroza, Vitoria-Gasteiz
The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Alaves. The most likely score is 0-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,422 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Alaves vs Barcelona?
Barcelona is a heavy favourite: 2,436 Elo points against 2,077, a 359-point gap.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Alaves vs Barcelona
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Alaves
3-5-2- 15L. Boyé
- 11Toni Martínez
- 19Pablo Ibáñez
- 21A. Rebbach
- 8Antonio Blanco
- 7Angel Pérez
- 4Denis Suárez
- 14N. Tenaglia
- 17Jonny
- 2N. Valentini
- 1Sivera
Barcelona
4-3-3- 10Lamine Yamal
- 17A. Gordon
- 11Raphinha
- 16Rodri
- 20Dani Olmo
- 8Pedri
- 24Eric García
- 18Gerard Martín
- 5Pau Cubarsí Paredes
- 12X. Espart
- 1Joan García
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 01:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Alaves have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Barcelona have 13, 1 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Athletic Club(away) | 0-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 15, 2026 | Valencia(home) | 0-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Racing Santander(away) | 1-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Osasuna(home) | 5-2 | La Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 4-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Getafe(home) | 3-0 | La Liga |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | La Liga |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Racing Santander(home) | 7-2 | La Liga |
| Sep 13, 2026 | Levante(away) | 4-2 | La Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Alaves win, 0 draws, 5 Barcelona wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 13, 2026 | Alaves 1-0 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Nov 29, 2025 | Barcelona 3-1 Alaves | La Liga |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Barcelona 1-0 Alaves | La Liga |
| Oct 6, 2024 | Alaves 0-3 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Alaves 1-3 Barcelona | La Liga |
| Nov 12, 2023 | Barcelona 2-1 Alaves | La Liga |
How many goals should we expect?
Alaves score 1.4 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Barcelona score 3.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaves | 1.4 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Barcelona | 3.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Alaves sit 7th in La Liga (11 points from 8 matches) and Barcelona sit 1st (24 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 34 | 7 | 24 |
| 7 | Alaves | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 8 | 11 |
A question about Alaves vs Barcelona?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Alaves vs Barcelona?
- The Footlab AI model makes Barcelona the favourite at 65%, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Alaves.
- Where and when is Alaves vs Barcelona played?
- Alaves vs Barcelona is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio de Mendizorroza, in the La Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.