Emmen vs Jong Ajax: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 24Kick-off on January 29, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC)De Oude Meerdijk, Emmen
The Footlab model makes Emmen the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
Emmen starts as the favourite with a 140-point Elo edge (1,683 vs 1,543).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Emmen have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Jong Ajax have 4, 1 and 10.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Jong AZ(home) | 3-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Ajax(away) | 6-4 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Roda(home) | 1-0 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Almere City FC(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Twente(home) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 4-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 Emmen win(s), 1 draw(s), 0 Jong Ajax win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 17, 2026 | Jong Ajax 4-6 Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| Feb 23, 2026 | Emmen 0-0 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Oct 24, 2025 | Jong Ajax 0-1 Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 11, 2025 | Jong Ajax 0-2 Emmen | Eerste Divisie |
| Nov 8, 2024 | Emmen 4-2 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Mar 29, 2024 | Emmen 4-2 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Emmen score 1.9 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Jong Ajax score 1.5 and concede 2.3. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmen | 1.9 | 1.9 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Jong Ajax | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Emmen sit 1st in Eerste Divisie (9 points from 3 matches) and Jong Ajax sit 20th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 1 | Emmen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 5 | 9 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Emmen vs Jong Ajax?
- The Footlab model makes Emmen the favourite at 60%, against 21% for a draw and 20% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Emmen vs Jong Ajax played?
- Emmen vs Jong Ajax is played on January 29, 2027 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at De Oude Meerdijk, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.